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Daniel Bellinger Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+900/-1200).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1200 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1200.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the New York Giants are predicted by the model to run 66.2 offensive plays in this game: the 8th-most among all teams this week.The Giants have run the 6th-most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 60.4 plays per game.After accruing 4.0 air yards per game last year, Daniel Bellinger has seen a big uptick this year, now sitting at 17.0 per game.Daniel Bellinger's 12.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive usage) has been substantially better this year than it was last year at 5.2.As it relates to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the New York Giants profiles as the 8th-best in football this year.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Giants to pass on 50.7% of their plays: the 2nd-lowest frequency on the slate this week.The projections expect the Giants to be the 10th-most run-heavy offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 47.2% red zone run rate.Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being projected in this game) generally lead to worse passing efficiency, reduced air volume, and higher ground volume.Opposing quarterbacks teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Minnesota Vikings, totaling the 4th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 30.7 per game) this year.Daniel Bellinger's sure-handedness have declined this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate falling off from 100.0% to 72.5%.
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