Daniel Bellinger Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Daniel Bellinger

TE · New York Giants

Receiving Yards

New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 11:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Daniel Bellinger Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Giants are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Giants to run the 2nd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New York Giants have called the 10th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 59.6 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 34.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Giants rank as the 8th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 56.2% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects Daniel Bellinger to be a much smaller piece of his offense's air attack this week (4.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (10.9% in games he has played).
The New York Giants O-line ranks as the 4th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
Daniel Bellinger has been among the weakest TEs in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a lowly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 2nd percentile.
The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency versus tight ends since the start of last season, allowing 5.78 yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-least in the NFL.