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D'Andre Swift

D'Andre Swift Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 18

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions

 
 
 
D'Andre Swift Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-111/-113).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +102 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -113.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Bears have a new play-caller this season in head coach Ben Johnson, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.1% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
  • Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Chicago Bears are predicted by the predictive model to call 68.8 offensive plays in this game: the most among all teams this week.
  • The highest number of plays in football have been run by the Bears this year (a monstrous 61.4 per game on average).
  • D'Andre Swift's 13.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive usage) ranks him among the best in football: 76th percentile for RBs.
  • As it relates to pass protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack stats), the offensive line of the Chicago Bears profiles as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 3-point advantage, the Bears are favored in this week's contest, implying more of a focus on rushing than their usual approach.
  • Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bears to pass on 53.8% of their chances: the 8th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
  • D'Andre Swift has garnered 46.9% of his team's red zone rush attempts this year, placing him in the 85th percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • D'Andre Swift has posted a paltry -3.0 air yards per game this year: just 15th percentile among running backs.
  • D'Andre Swift's 76.6% Adjusted Catch% this season shows a significant decrease in his receiving ability over last season's 83.0% figure.

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