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D'Andre Swift

D'Andre Swift Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 14

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears

 
 
 
D'Andre Swift Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+215/-245).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -240 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -245.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Bears are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
  • The most plays in football have been run by the Chicago Bears this year (a massive 61.8 per game on average).
  • The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may drop.
  • D'Andre Swift's 14.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the NFL: 80th percentile for RBs.
  • In regards to pocket protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Bears profiles as the 3rd-best in the league this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Bears to be the 6th-most run-centric offense in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 48.3% red zone run rate.
  • The predictive model expects this game to see the 4th-fewest plays run on the slate this week at 128.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • With a dismal 0.0% Red Zone Target Rate (1st percentile) this year, D'Andre Swift places among the RB receiving threats with the lowest utilization rates near the goal line in the NFL.
  • When talking about air yards, D'Andre Swift grades out in the lowly 18th percentile among RBs this year, totaling just -3.0 per game.
  • D'Andre Swift's 73.2% Adjusted Completion% this year indicates a noteable decline in his receiving prowess over last year's 82.8% figure.

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