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D'Andre Swift

D'Andre Swift Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 12

Chicago Bears vs Pittsburgh Steelers

 
 
 
D'Andre Swift Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+122/-148).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +160 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +122.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At just 28.07 seconds per play, the Chicago Bears offense ranks as the 8th-fastest paced in football (context-neutralized) this year.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 40.5 pass attempts per game against the Steelers defense this year: most in the league.
  • The predictive model expects D'Andre Swift to be much more involved in his team's passing attack near the end zone in this week's game (5.2% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).
  • The Chicago offensive line profiles as the 3rd-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all air attack stats across the board.
  • D'Andre Swift grades out in the 76th percentile among RBs as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging an impressive 0.10 per game.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Chicago Bears to be the 7th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 55.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • The projections expect the Chicago Bears to be the 8th-most run-heavy team in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 47.7% red zone run rate.
  • Among all RBs, D'Andre Swift grades out in the 85th percentile for red zone carries this year, accounting for 51.0% of the workload in his offense's rushing attack near the goal line.
  • As it relates to air yards, D'Andre Swift ranks in the measly 17th percentile among RBs this year, with just -3.0 per game.
  • D'Andre Swift's sure-handedness have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate falling off from 82.9% to 74.1%.

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