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D'Andre Swift

D'Andre Swift Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears

 
 
 
D'Andre Swift Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+150/-166).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -146 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -166.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This week's spread indicates a passing game script for the Bears, who are -3-point underdogs.
  • The model projects the Chicago Bears to call the 3rd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.6 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
  • The Bears have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 59.7 plays per game.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • While D'Andre Swift has accounted for 0.0% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a much bigger part of Chicago's passing attack near the end zone in this game at 6.5%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Chicago Bears to be the 7th-most run-heavy team in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 47.1% red zone run rate.
  • Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to pass too much against the Minnesota Vikings, totaling the 4th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 28.9 per game) this year.
  • Out of all RBs, D'Andre Swift ranks in the 85th percentile for red zone rush attempts this year, making up 51.1% of the volume in his team's rushing attack near the goal line.
  • D'Andre Swift has accrued a mere -5.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 9th percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • D'Andre Swift's 76.8% Adjusted Catch% this season conveys a meaningful decline in his receiving prowess over last season's 82.8% figure.

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