D'Andre Swift Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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D'Andre Swift

NFL · Player Props

D'Andre Swift

RB · Detroit Lions

Rushing Yards

Detroit Lions vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

D'Andre Swift Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 47.5 (+108/-143).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 50.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 47.5 @ -143.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 4th-most run-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 41.7% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects D'Andre Swift to accumulate 12.0 carries in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile among RBs.
D'Andre Swift has been given 50.3% of his offense's carries since the start of last season, placing him in the 83rd percentile among running backs.
The Philadelphia Eagles defensive tackles project as the 2nd-worst group of DTs in football since the start of last season in regard to run defense.
The Detroit Lions have gone for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the NFL), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Lions are a 5.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run among all games this week at 120.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
D'Andre Swift's running efficiency (3.74 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the NFL since the start of last season (20th percentile among running backs).
D'Andre Swift has been among the bottom running backs in football at picking up extra rushing yardage, averaging a mere 2.40 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while grading out in the 10th percentile.

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