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D'Andre Swift

D'Andre Swift Receptions
Player Prop Week 12

Chicago Bears vs Pittsburgh Steelers

 
 
 
D'Andre Swift Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-182/+145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -161 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +145.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At just 28.07 seconds per play, the Chicago Bears offense ranks as the 8th-fastest paced in football (context-neutralized) this year.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 40.5 pass attempts per game against the Steelers defense this year: most in the league.
  • The model projects D'Andre Swift to accrue 3.2 targets in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 80th percentile among running backs.
  • D'Andre Swift has been a key part of his team's offense, earning a Target Share of 11.4% this year, which ranks in the 86th percentile when it comes to RBs.
  • The Chicago offensive line profiles as the 3rd-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all air attack stats across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Chicago Bears to be the 7th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 55.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • D'Andre Swift's sure-handedness have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate falling off from 82.9% to 74.1%.
  • As it relates to linebackers pass-rushing, Pittsburgh's LB corps has been exceptional this year, grading out as the best in the NFL.

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