D'Andre Swift Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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D'Andre Swift

NFL · Player Props

D'Andre Swift

RB · Philadelphia Eagles

Receptions

Dallas Cowboys vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 2:51 AM UTC

Analysis

D'Andre Swift Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Philadelphia Eagles boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Johnson, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 1.1% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
This game's spread implies a throwing game script for the Eagles, who are -3.5-point underdogs.
The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.
In this week's contest, D'Andre Swift is projected by the projection model to slot into the 81st percentile when it comes to running backs with 3.7 targets.
The Philadelphia offensive line profiles as the best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles offense to be the 7th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 28.60 seconds per play.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 3rd-fewest in football.
D'Andre Swift has been much more involved in his team's offense this season, staying in the game for 59.4% of snaps compared to just 41.6% last season.
The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has given up the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (77.1%) to running backs this year (77.1%).
The Dallas Cowboys linebackers project as the 4th-best group of LBs in the league this year in defending receivers.

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