D'Andre Swift Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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D'Andre Swift

NFL · Player Props

D'Andre Swift

RB · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Miami Dolphins · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 23, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

D'Andre Swift Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 23.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Eagles are expected by our trusted projection set to run 66.9 offensive plays in this contest: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.
The Philadelphia Eagles have run the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 67.2 plays per game.
In this week's game, D'Andre Swift is forecasted by the projections to slot into the 89th percentile among RBs with 4.4 targets.
D'Andre Swift has been heavily involved in his team's pass game, earning a Target Share of 13.4% this year, which places him in the 93rd percentile among running backs.
As it relates to pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Eagles profiles as the 4th-best in the NFL this year.

Favors Under

With a 3-point advantage, the Eagles are favored this week, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.
The leading projections forecast the Eagles to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being projected in this game) typically correlate with decreased passing effectiveness, lower pass volume, and increased run volume.
D'Andre Swift has accumulated quite a few less adjusted receiving yards per game (21.0) this year than he did last year (29.0).
D'Andre Swift's pass-game efficiency has diminished this year, compiling a measly 4.80 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 6.54 mark last year.

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