Damien Harris Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Damien Harris

RB · New England Patriots

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Damien Harris Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+230/-325).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +260 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +230.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New England Patriots will be rolling out backup QB Brian Hoyer this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Patriots are a huge 9.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
Damien Harris has been among the best possession receivers in football among running backs, catching an impressive 89.2% of balls thrown his way this year, checking in at the 80th percentile.
The Green Bay Packers defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-most sluggish in the league since the start of last season.
The New England Patriots have been faced with a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 7th-least pass-centric team in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 58.9% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 2nd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have run the 3rd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 56.6 plays per game.
The Green Bay Packers linebackers profile as the 3rd-best LB corps in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The New England Patriots O-line has given their quarterback a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all air attack statistics across the board.