Damien Harris Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Damien Harris

RB · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Damien Harris Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-105/-115).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New England Patriots will be rolling out backup QB Brian Hoyer this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Patriots are a huge 9.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
Damien Harris has been among the best possession receivers in football among running backs, catching an impressive 89.2% of balls thrown his way this year, checking in at the 80th percentile.
The Green Bay Packers defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-most sluggish in the league since the start of last season.
The New England Patriots have been faced with a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 7th-least pass-centric team in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 58.9% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 2nd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have run the 3rd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 56.6 plays per game.
Damien Harris has totaled a puny 0.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: a lowly 21st percentile among RBs.
Damien Harris's receiving efficiency has declined this season, totaling a measly 5.51 yards-per-target compared to a 6.53 figure last season.