Dameon Pierce Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Dameon Pierce

NFL · Player Props

Dameon Pierce

RB · Houston Texans

Rushing Yards

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 18, 2023 1:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Dameon Pierce Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 58.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 56.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 58.5 @ -100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 5th-most run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 46.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 134.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Dameon Pierce to notch 16.2 carries in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile among running backs.
Dameon Pierce has grinded out 69.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the highest figures in the NFL among RBs (93rd percentile).

Favors Under

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Dameon Pierce to be much less involved in his offense's rushing attack this week (52.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (75.6% in games he has played).
The Houston Texans offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
The Indianapolis Colts defensive tackles profile as the best group of DTs in the league since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.

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