Dameon Pierce Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Dameon Pierce

NFL · Player Props

Dameon Pierce

RB · Houston Texans

Receiving Yards

Houston Texans vs Cleveland Browns · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Dameon Pierce Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (+104/-128).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -128.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans will be forced to use backup quarterback Kyle Allen this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.4% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Texans are a massive 7.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 8th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to run the 5th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have run the 4th-least plays in football this year, totaling just 53.7 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
Dameon Pierce has accrued a mere -2.0 air yards per game this year: just 11th percentile among running backs.
The Houston Texans O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board.

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