Dameon Pierce Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Dameon Pierce

NFL · Player Props

Dameon Pierce

RB · Houston Texans

Carries

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 7:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Dameon Pierce Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-129/-106).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.8% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 4th-most run-heavy team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 42.9% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 133.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have played in the 5th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which should lead to reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing attack results when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
Dameon Pierce has been on the field for 60.3% of his team's snaps since the start of last season, ranking in the 97th percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

The Texans are a heavy 7.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
The Houston Texans offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in football since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive ends rank as the 5th-best unit in football since the start of last season with their run defense.

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