Dalton Schultz Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Dalton Schultz

NFL · Player Props

Dalton Schultz

TE · Houston Texans

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Houston Texans · Week 6, 2024

Updated Oct 13, 2024 11:21 PM EST

Analysis

Dalton Schultz Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-150/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 29.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 30.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Houston Texans to be the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 62.8% pass rate.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by our trusted projection set to see 127.8 total plays called: the 5th-most among all games this week.
The most plays in the NFL have been called by the Texans this year (a monstrous 63.2 per game on average).
The projections expect Dalton Schultz to total 5.0 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 85th percentile among tight ends.
This year, the feeble New England Patriots defense has surrendered a monstrous 53.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends: the 5th-most in the league.

Favors Under

The Texans are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a running game script.
After accumulating 45.0 air yards per game last season, Dalton Schultz has posted significant losses this season, now averaging 34.0 per game.
Dalton Schultz's 28.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 34.7.
When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the influence it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the Houston Texans profiles as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year.
Dalton Schultz's 22.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year indicates a meaningful regression in his receiving talent over last year's 41.0 figure.

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