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Dalton Kincaid Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 9

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs

Dalton Kincaid Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+270/-310).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -295 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -310.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may fall-off.

Dalton Kincaid has been a key part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 15.6% this year, which ranks in the 81st percentile among tight ends.

Dalton Kincaid has put up a staggering 44.0 air yards per game this year: 96th percentile among TEs.

Dalton Kincaid slots into the 91st percentile when it comes to tight end WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive volume) with an astounding 38.3 mark this year.

The Bills offensive line grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Bills to be the 7th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.8% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

The predictive model expects the Bills to run the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.9 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

Opposing QBs teams have been disinclined to test the pass defense of the Chiefs, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in football (just 29.1 per game) this year.

The Chiefs defense has surrendered the fewest TDs through the air in the league to TEs: 0.12 per game this year.

When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in stopping the run, Kansas City's DT corps has been atrocious this year, grading out as the worst in the league. in the league.

More Dalton Kincaid Player Props

Dalton Kincaid TouchdownsPlayer Prop Week 9

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs

Dalton Kincaid Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 9