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Dalton Kincaid

Dalton Kincaid Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 5

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

Dalton Kincaid Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+230/-280).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +240 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +230.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bills have run the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 58.8 plays per game.

Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically mean increased passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.

With a top-tier 20.8% Red Zone Target Rate (91st percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid places among the TEs with the biggest workloads near the end zone in the NFL.

When talking about air yards, Dalton Kincaid grades out in the lofty 92nd percentile among tight ends this year, totaling a massive 39.0 per game.

The Buffalo O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all passing game statistics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Bills are a heavy favorite in this week's game, suggesting much more of a reliance on running than their standard game plan.

The projections expect the Buffalo Bills as the 5th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 54.6% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The model projects the Bills to run the 4th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.3 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

Dalton Kincaid's 35.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 43.0.

The Patriots defensive ends project as the 7th-worst collection of DEs in the league this year with their run defense.

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