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Dalton Kincaid

Dalton Kincaid Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 3

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins

Dalton Kincaid Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+280/-290).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -365 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -290.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

With an exceptional 14.3% Red Zone Target Rate (84th percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid stands among the tight ends with the highest volume near the end zone in football.

Dalton Kincaid has accumulated a staggering 43.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 94th percentile when it comes to tight ends.

Dalton Kincaid's 41.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive usage) ranks among the best in football: 92nd percentile for tight ends.

When it comes to protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Bills ranks as the 7th-best in football since the start of last season.

Dalton Kincaid's 81.4% Adjusted Completion Rate this year represents an impressive improvement in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 62.0% figure.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 11.5-point advantage, the Bills are overwhelmingly favored this week, implying much more of a focus on running than their standard game plan.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Bills to pass on 52.0% of their chances: the 5th-lowest clip among all teams this week.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by our trusted projection set to have just 125.3 plays on offense run: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.

The Buffalo Bills have run the 9th-fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging just 56.1 plays per game.

Since the start of last season, the stout Dolphins defense has yielded a paltry 0.26 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing tight ends: the 6th-smallest rate in the NFL.

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