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Dalton Kincaid

Dalton Kincaid Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 19

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Dalton Kincaid Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+250/-310).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +270 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +250.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Bills will be rolling out backup QB Josh Allen in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
  • Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 2nd-fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 125.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the most passes in football (37.5 per game) this year.
  • When talking about air yards, Dalton Kincaid ranks in the lofty 88th percentile among tight ends this year, averaging a massive 39.0 per game.
  • In regards to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense metrics), the offensive line of the Bills grades out as the best in the NFL this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills to be the 6th-most run-heavy team in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 48.5% red zone run rate.
  • Dalton Kincaid's 35.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 43.0.
  • Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 8th-lowest clip in football vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year (67.4% Adjusted Completion%).
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers project as the 2nd-best group of LBs in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

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