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Dalton Kincaid

Dalton Kincaid Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 17

Buffalo Bills vs Philadelphia Eagles

 
 
 
Dalton Kincaid Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+320/-455).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -360 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -455.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • With an elite 15.4% Red Zone Target Share (77th percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid places among the TEs with the biggest workloads near the goal line in football.
  • Dalton Kincaid has compiled a monstrous 40.0 air yards per game this year: 88th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
  • The Bills offensive line profiles as the 2nd-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing offense metrics across the board.
  • Dalton Kincaid's 79.5% Adjusted Catch% this year illustrates a noteable progression in his pass-catching talent over last year's 62.0% mark.
  • With an exceptional ratio of 0.42 per game through the air (89th percentile), Dalton Kincaid places among the leading receiving TD-scorers in the league when it comes to TEs this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 3-point advantage, the Bills are favored in this week's game, implying more of a focus on running than their usual game plan.
  • Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Buffalo Bills to pass on 50.4% of their chances: the lowest clip on the slate this week.
  • At the present time, the 7th-most run-focused team in the league near the goal line (48.0% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Buffalo Bills.
  • The leading projections forecast this game to see the 2nd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 125.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Dalton Kincaid's 36.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 43.0.

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