Dalton Kincaid Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 16

My Account Log Out

reorder

Dalton Kincaid

NFL · Player Props

Dalton Kincaid

TE · Buffalo Bills

Touchdowns

Cleveland Browns vs Buffalo Bills · Week 16, 2025

Updated Dec 22, 2025 12:27 AM EST

Analysis

Dalton Kincaid Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+255/-310).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +255 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +255.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to have 131.0 plays on offense called: the 5th-most on the slate this week.
With a remarkable 16.0% Red Zone Target Rate (79th percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid stands among the tight ends with the most usage near the goal line in the league.
In regards to air yards, Dalton Kincaid grades out in the lofty 92nd percentile among TEs this year, accumulating a striking 42.0 per game.
In regards to pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Bills profiles as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year.
Dalton Kincaid's possession skills have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 62.0% to 81.1%.

Favors Under

This game's line suggests an extreme running game script for the Bills, who are heavily favored by 10.5 points.
The leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills as the least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 50.5% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The model projects the Bills to be the 9th-most run-heavy offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 47.3% red zone run rate.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Browns defense this year: 3rd-fewest in football.

More Dalton Kincaid Props Data by WriteNow™

About WriteNow