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Dalton Kincaid

Dalton Kincaid Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 15

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Dalton Kincaid Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+255/-325).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -300 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -325.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Dalton Kincaid has been a big part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 14.0% this year, which puts him in the 78th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
  • Dalton Kincaid has compiled a monstrous 42.0 air yards per game this year: 93rd percentile when it comes to tight ends.
  • When it comes to pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all passing offense stats), the O-line of the Bills profiles as the best in the NFL this year.
  • Dalton Kincaid's 81.0% Adjusted Completion Rate this season represents a material gain in his receiving proficiency over last season's 62.0% mark.
  • With a terrific rate of 0.50 per game through the air (91st percentile), Dalton Kincaid rates as one of the leading receiving TD-scorers in football when it comes to tight ends this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Bills to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 53.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • At the present time, the 8th-most run-heavy team in the league in the red zone (47.2% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Buffalo Bills.
  • The leading projections forecast this game to have the fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 124.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Dalton Kincaid's 37.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 43.0.
  • The New England Patriots defense has allowed the 7th-fewest receiving touchdowns in the NFL to tight ends: 0.31 per game this year.

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