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Dalton Kincaid

Dalton Kincaid Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 13

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Dalton Kincaid Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+210/-275).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -235 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -275.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: most in the league.
  • With a top-tier 14.7% Red Zone Target Share (78th percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid ranks among the tight ends with the biggest workloads near the goal line in the league.
  • When it comes to air yards, Dalton Kincaid ranks in the towering 93rd percentile among TEs this year, accruing an impressive 44.0 per game.
  • When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all passing attack statistics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills profiles as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year.
  • Dalton Kincaid's 80.6% Adjusted Completion% this season reflects a meaningful boost in his receiving skills over last season's 62.0% mark.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Bills are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a running game script.
  • The leading projections forecast the Bills to be the 10th-most run-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 47.0% red zone run rate.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by the projections to have just 128.1 total plays called: the 5th-fewest among all games this week.
  • Dalton Kincaid's 36.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 43.0.

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