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Dalton Kincaid

Dalton Kincaid Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 10

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Dalton Kincaid Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+162/-210).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +194 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +162.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • With an extraordinary 15.6% Red Zone Target% (78th percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid rates as one of the TEs with the most usage near the goal line in football.
  • Dalton Kincaid has totaled a colossal 44.0 air yards per game this year: 96th percentile when it comes to TEs.
  • Dalton Kincaid's 40.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in football: 96th percentile for tight ends.
  • In regards to pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense stats), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year.
  • Dalton Kincaid's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate jumping from 62.0% to 82.0%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 8-point advantage, the Bills are overwhelmingly favored in this week's game, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their normal approach.
  • Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills to pass on 53.2% of their chances: the 5th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Buffalo Bills to be the 8th-most run-focused offense in the NFL near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 46.1% red zone run rate.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to have only 121.8 total plays called: the fewest out of all the games this week.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 28.2 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 2nd-fewest in football.

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