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Dalton Kincaid Receptions
Player Prop Week 9

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs

Dalton Kincaid Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-117/-116).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +113 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -117.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may fall-off.

The leading projections forecast Dalton Kincaid to notch 5.2 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 80th percentile when it comes to TEs.

Dalton Kincaid slots into the 91st percentile when it comes to tight end WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive volume) with an astounding 38.3 mark this year.

The Bills offensive line grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

Dalton Kincaid's 77.9% Adjusted Catch% this year illustrates a meaningful gain in his pass-catching talent over last year's 62.0% mark.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Bills to be the 7th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.8% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

The predictive model expects the Bills to run the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.9 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

Opposing QBs teams have been disinclined to test the pass defense of the Chiefs, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in football (just 29.1 per game) this year.

As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Kansas City's collection of safeties has been phenomenal this year, ranking as the 7th-best in the league.

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Dalton Kincaid ReceptionsPlayer Prop Week 9

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs

Dalton Kincaid Receptions
Player Prop Week 9