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Dalton Kincaid

Dalton Kincaid Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Buffalo Bills vs Philadelphia Eagles

 
 
 
Dalton Kincaid Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-140/+112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +132 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +112.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Bills offensive line profiles as the 2nd-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing offense metrics across the board.
  • With an exceptional 3.0 adjusted receptions per game (79th percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid has been as one of the top pass-catching TEs in the NFL.
  • Dalton Kincaid's 79.5% Adjusted Catch% this year illustrates a noteable progression in his pass-catching talent over last year's 62.0% mark.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 3-point advantage, the Bills are favored in this week's game, implying more of a focus on running than their usual game plan.
  • Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Buffalo Bills to pass on 50.4% of their chances: the lowest clip on the slate this week.
  • The leading projections forecast this game to see the 2nd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 125.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Dalton Kincaid's 36.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 43.0.
  • This year, the strong Eagles defense has conceded a paltry 66.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 2nd-lowest rate in the league.

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