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Dalton Kincaid

Dalton Kincaid Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Cleveland Browns vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Dalton Kincaid Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+115/-146).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +123 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +115.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by the projection model to have 131.0 plays on offense called: the 5th-most on the slate this week.
  • In this game, Dalton Kincaid is predicted by our trusted projection set to slot into the 75th percentile among tight ends with 4.7 targets.
  • In regards to pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Bills profiles as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year.
  • Dalton Kincaid rates as one of the top pass-catching tight ends this year, averaging a remarkable 3.3 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 85th percentile.
  • Dalton Kincaid's possession skills have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 62.0% to 81.1%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This game's line suggests an extreme running game script for the Bills, who are heavily favored by 10.5 points.
  • The leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills as the least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 50.5% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Browns defense this year: 3rd-fewest in football.
  • Dalton Kincaid's 37.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 43.0.

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