reorder

Dalton Kincaid Receptions
Player Prop Week 10

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills

Dalton Kincaid Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-164/+125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -143 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -164.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects Dalton Kincaid to garner 5.1 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 77th percentile when it comes to TEs.

Dalton Kincaid's 40.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in football: 96th percentile for tight ends.

In regards to pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense stats), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year.

Dalton Kincaid comes in as one of the best pass-game TEs this year, averaging an excellent 3.0 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 78th percentile.

Dalton Kincaid's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate jumping from 62.0% to 82.0%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 8-point advantage, the Bills are overwhelmingly favored in this week's game, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their normal approach.

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills to pass on 53.2% of their chances: the 5th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to have only 121.8 total plays called: the fewest out of all the games this week.

Opposing QBs have averaged 28.2 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 2nd-fewest in football.

More Dalton Kincaid Player Props

Dalton Kincaid ReceptionsPlayer Prop Week 10

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills

Dalton Kincaid Receptions
Player Prop Week 10