Dalton Kincaid Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Dalton Kincaid

NFL · Player Props

Dalton Kincaid

TE · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Dalton Kincaid Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+100/-130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Bills to be the 4th-most pass-focused offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 68.0% pass rate.
In this week's contest, Dalton Kincaid is projected by our trusted projection set to finish in the 96th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 7.5 targets.
While Dalton Kincaid has earned 16.8% of his offense's targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a more integral piece of Buffalo's offense in this week's contest at 22.5%.
When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL this year.
With an excellent 5.0 adjusted receptions per game (93rd percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid ranks among the top tight ends in the pass game in the NFL.

Favors Under

This game's line suggests a running game script for the Bills, who are favored by 6.5 points.
The model projects this game to see the 3rd-fewest plays run among all games this week at 125.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 8th-lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Buffalo Bills this year (only 55.6 per game on average).
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.9 pass attempts per game against the Jets defense this year: 6th-fewest in the league.
This year, the daunting Jets defense has conceded a paltry 67.0% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the 5th-lowest rate in the league.

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