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Dalton Kincaid

Dalton Kincaid Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 9

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs

 
 
 
Dalton Kincaid Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 37.5 (-125/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 36.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 37.5 @ -125.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may fall-off.
  • The leading projections forecast Dalton Kincaid to notch 5.2 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 80th percentile when it comes to TEs.
  • Dalton Kincaid has put up a staggering 44.0 air yards per game this year: 96th percentile among TEs.
  • Dalton Kincaid slots into the 91st percentile when it comes to tight end WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive volume) with an astounding 38.3 mark this year.
  • The Bills offensive line grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Bills to be the 7th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.8% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • The predictive model expects the Bills to run the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.9 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
  • Opposing QBs teams have been disinclined to test the pass defense of the Chiefs, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in football (just 29.1 per game) this year.
  • Dalton Kincaid's 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year marks a noteable decrease in his effectiveness in the open field over last year's 6.2% figure.
  • The Chiefs defense has allowed the 5th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 38.0) to TEs this year.

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