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Dalton Kincaid

Dalton Kincaid Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 5

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Dalton Kincaid Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 36.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 35.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 36.5 @ -115.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Bills have run the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 58.8 plays per game.
  • The predictive model expects Dalton Kincaid to total 5.5 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 83rd percentile among TEs.
  • When talking about air yards, Dalton Kincaid grades out in the lofty 92nd percentile among tight ends this year, totaling a massive 39.0 per game.
  • The Buffalo O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all passing game statistics across the board.
  • With an outstanding 37.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (86th percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid stands as one of the top tight ends in the pass game in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 7.5-point advantage, the Bills are a heavy favorite in this week's game, suggesting much more of a reliance on running than their standard game plan.
  • The projections expect the Buffalo Bills as the 5th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 53.9% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • The model projects the Bills to run the 4th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.7 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
  • Dalton Kincaid's 35.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 43.0.
  • Dalton Kincaid's 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year marks a significant drop-off in his efficiency in the open field over last year's 6.2% rate.

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