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Dalton Kincaid

Dalton Kincaid Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Buffalo Bills vs New Orleans Saints

Dalton Kincaid Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (+105/-119).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 35.5 @ -121 before it was bet down to 35.5 @ -119.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects this game to have the most plays run on the slate this week at 135.5 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.

The Saints defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing QBs to attempt the 10th-most passes in the NFL (33.8 per game) since the start of last season.

The leading projections forecast Dalton Kincaid to accumulate 5.6 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 86th percentile among TEs.

With a high 19.3% Target% (93rd percentile) since the start of last season, Dalton Kincaid has been as one of the tight ends with the most usage in the NFL.

When talking about air yards, Dalton Kincaid ranks in the lofty 94th percentile among TEs since the start of last season, accruing a staggering 44.0 per game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bills are a huge 14.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Buffalo Bills to pass on 50.4% of their chances: the lowest rate among all teams this week.

The 8th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Bills since the start of last season (only 56.0 per game on average).

Dalton Kincaid's ability to pick up extra yardage has tailed off this season, averaging a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 6.16 rate last season.

More Dalton Kincaid Player Props

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