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Dalton Kincaid Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-125/-103).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 27.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 35.5 @ -125.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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In this week's game, Dalton Kincaid is expected by our trusted projection set to land in the 85th percentile among tight ends with 5.3 targets.Dalton Kincaid has been heavily involved in his team's pass game, garnering a Target Share of 19.1% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to TEs.Dalton Kincaid has accumulated a staggering 43.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 94th percentile when it comes to tight ends.When it comes to protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all passing game metrics), the O-line of the Bills ranks as the 7th-best in football since the start of last season.Dalton Kincaid is positioned as one of the best pass-game tight ends since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 37.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 81st percentile.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 11.5-point advantage, the Bills are overwhelmingly favored this week, implying much more of a focus on running than their standard game plan.Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Bills to pass on 52.0% of their chances: the 5th-lowest clip among all teams this week.Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by our trusted projection set to have just 125.3 plays on offense run: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.The Buffalo Bills have run the 9th-fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging just 56.1 plays per game.
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