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Dallas Goedert

Dallas Goedert Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 3

Philadelphia Eagles vs Los Angeles Rams

Dallas Goedert Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+365/-580).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -445 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -580.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Philadelphia Eagles feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.3% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).

The projections expect the Eagles to run the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.1 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.

The Eagles have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 59.5 plays per game.

Dallas Goedert has accrued a monstrous 37.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 90th percentile when it comes to tight ends.

Dallas Goedert's 49.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the NFL: 97th percentile for tight ends.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A running game script is indicated by the Eagles being a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game.

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Philadelphia Eagles to pass on 49.5% of their chances: the lowest clip among all teams this week.

While Dallas Goedert has been responsible for 25.0% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played since the start of last season, the model projects him to be a less important option in Philadelphia's passing offense near the goal line in this contest at 19.9%.

Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest rate in football against the Los Angeles Rams defense since the start of last season (67.4% Adjusted Completion%).

When it comes to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Los Angeles's unit has been fantastic since the start of last season, profiling as the 5th-best in the league.

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