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Dallas Goedert

Dallas Goedert Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 13

Philadelphia Eagles vs Chicago Bears

 
 
 
Dallas Goedert Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+215/-220).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -255 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -220.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Philadelphia Eagles are expected by the projections to run 66.3 total plays in this contest: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week.
  • Dallas Goedert has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 21.2% this year, which ranks in the 88th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
  • Dallas Goedert has accumulated a staggering 39.0 air yards per game this year: 89th percentile among TEs.
  • With a remarkable rate of 0.70 per game through the air (100th percentile), Dallas Goedert places as one of the top receiving touchdown-scorers in the league when it comes to tight ends this year.
  • This year, the anemic Bears pass defense has been torched for a monstrous 87.7% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the highest rate in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • An extreme running game script is suggested by the Eagles being a massive 7-point favorite this week.
  • The model projects the Eagles as the 2nd-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 50.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • The leading projections forecast the Philadelphia Eagles to be the most run-centric team in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 52.3% red zone run rate.
  • The 8th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Eagles this year (a measly 54.3 per game on average).
  • The weather forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.

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