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Dallas Goedert

Dallas Goedert Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11

Philadelphia Eagles vs Detroit Lions

 
 
 
Dallas Goedert Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+200/-205).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -205 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -205.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Dallas Goedert has been a big part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 28.0% this year, which puts him in the 96th percentile among TEs.
  • Dallas Goedert has put up a whopping 43.0 air yards per game this year: 93rd percentile among TEs.
  • Dallas Goedert rates in the 98th percentile among tight end WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive volume) with a monstrous 45.2 figure this year.
  • Dallas Goedert grades out in the 100th percentile among TEs when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a fantastic 0.88 per game.
  • Opposing offenses have run for the 9th-fewest TDs in the NFL (0.78 per game) against the Detroit Lions defense this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects the Eagles as the 4th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 52.2% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • The leading projections forecast the Philadelphia Eagles to be the most run-centric team in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 52.5% red zone run rate.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projection model to have only 126.8 offensive plays called: the 4th-lowest number among all games this week.
  • The Philadelphia Eagles have run the 5th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 52.9 plays per game.
  • Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being forecasted in this game) generally correlate with worse passing efficiency, reduced pass volume, and increased rush volume.

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