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Dallas Goedert

Dallas Goedert Receptions
Player Prop Week 8

Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants

 
 
 
Dallas Goedert Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+150/-200).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +150.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may go down.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 40.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Giants defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.
  • Our trusted projections expect Dallas Goedert to earn 7.8 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile when it comes to TEs.
  • Dallas Goedert has been in the 97th percentile when it comes to tight end WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive involvement) with a superb 44.8 mark this year.
  • Dallas Goedert profiles as one of the leading tight ends in the pass game this year, averaging a stellar 4.5 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 97th percentile.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 7-point advantage, the Eagles are a massive favorite in this game, suggesting much more of a reliance on running than their typical game plan.
  • The leading projections forecast the Eagles as the 2nd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 51.9% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • The predictive model expects the Philadelphia Eagles offense to be the 2nd-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 29.63 seconds per snap.
  • Dallas Goedert's 79.6% Adjusted Completion Rate this season represents a meaningful drop-off in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 83.2% mark.
  • The Giants pass defense has allowed the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (66.5%) to tight ends this year (66.5%).

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