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Dallas Goedert

Dallas Goedert Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Philadelphia Eagles vs Detroit Lions

 
 
 
Dallas Goedert Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+126/-140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -204 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +126.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This week, Dallas Goedert is predicted by our trusted projection set to rank in the 85th percentile when it comes to TEs with 6.1 targets.
  • Dallas Goedert rates in the 98th percentile among tight end WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive volume) with a monstrous 45.2 figure this year.
  • With a stellar 4.3 adjusted receptions per game (91st percentile) this year, Dallas Goedert rates as one of the top tight ends in the pass game in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects the Eagles as the 4th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 52.2% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projection model to have only 126.8 offensive plays called: the 4th-lowest number among all games this week.
  • The Philadelphia Eagles have run the 5th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 52.9 plays per game.
  • Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being forecasted in this game) generally correlate with worse passing efficiency, reduced pass volume, and increased rush volume.
  • Dallas Goedert's 79.5% Adjusted Completion% this year indicates a significant drop-off in his receiving proficiency over last year's 83.2% rate.

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