Dallas Goedert Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 20

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Dallas Goedert

NFL · Player Props

Dallas Goedert

TE · Philadelphia Eagles

Receptions

Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants · Week 20, 2022

Updated Jan 22, 2023 12:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Dallas Goedert Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-140/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run among all games this week at 138.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Dallas Goedert to accumulate 6.2 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 88th percentile among tight ends.
The New York Giants pass defense has yielded the 2nd-highest Completion% in football (77%) versus tight ends this year (77.0%).
The New York Giants linebackers rank as the worst unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Eagles are a heavy 7.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 53.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The New York Giants have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.4% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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