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Dallas Goedert

Dallas Goedert Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Philadelphia Eagles vs New Orleans Saints

Dallas Goedert Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+130/-170).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -170.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Philadelphia Eagles will be rolling with backup quarterback Gardner Minshew in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Philadelphia Eagles have called the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 59.9 plays per game.

Dallas Goedert has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this year (86.8% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (76.1%).

THE BLITZ projects Dallas Goedert to total 5.5 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among tight ends.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Eagles are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 6th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 51.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The New Orleans Saints pass defense has allowed the lowest Completion% in the league (54.5%) vs. tight ends this year (54.5%).

The New Orleans Saints safeties project as the 2nd-best group of safeties in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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