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Dallas Goedert

Dallas Goedert Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 3

Philadelphia Eagles vs Los Angeles Rams

Dallas Goedert Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 31.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 29.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Philadelphia Eagles feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).

The projections expect the Eagles to run the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.2 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.

The Eagles have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 59.5 plays per game.

In this week's game, Dallas Goedert is forecasted by the model to rank in the 89th percentile among tight ends with 5.7 targets.

Dallas Goedert has been a big part of his team's pass game, garnering a Target Share of 23.6% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 98th percentile among tight ends.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A running game script is indicated by the Eagles being a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game.

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Philadelphia Eagles to pass on 49.8% of their chances: the lowest clip among all teams this week.

Dallas Goedert's pass-game effectiveness has tailed off this year, notching a measly 6.19 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 9.11 mark last year.

The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has given up the 9th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (73.4%) to tight ends since the start of last season (73.4%).

When it comes to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Los Angeles's unit has been fantastic since the start of last season, profiling as the 5th-best in the league.

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