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Dak Prescott TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-167/+128).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -149 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -167.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The predictive model expects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 132.2 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.The Cowboys have called the 2nd-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 61.3 plays per game.In this contest, Dak Prescott is expected by the projection model to have the 8th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 35.9. Dak Prescott's throwing precision has been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 65.0% to 68.6%.When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Chicago's unit has been very bad since the start of last season, grading out as the 2nd-worst in football.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Right now, the 9th-least pass-heavy team in football in the red zone (54.3% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Cowboys.The Cowboys have played in the 9th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing attack effectiveness when facing windier conditions in this game.Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Chicago Bears, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 29.8 per game) since the start of last season.In regards to pass protection (and the effect it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Cowboys ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season.The Chicago Bears defense has given up the 6th-fewest passing TDs in the NFL: 1.26 per game since the start of last season.
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