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Dak Prescott

Dak Prescott TD Passes
Player Prop Week 1

Philadelphia Eagles vs Dallas Cowboys

Dak Prescott TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +110 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game's line suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Cowboys, who are big -7.5-point underdogs.

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Dallas Cowboys to pass on 61.4% of their chances: the 4th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.

The model projects the Cowboys to be the 9th-most pass-oriented team in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 58.7% red zone pass rate.

At the moment, the 8th-quickest paced team in football (adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Cowboys.

The model projects Dak Prescott to attempt 36.4 passes in this week's game, on balance: the 6th-most among all QBs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Dallas's passing stats last year may be artificially propped up a bit (and running stats too low) as a result of playing the 9th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league. We figure to be able to count on some correction with windier weather this week.

Opposing QBs have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Eagles defense last year: 10th-fewest in the NFL.

The Cowboys O-line profiles as the 10th-worst in the NFL last year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful influence on all passing offense stats across the board.

Last year, the daunting Philadelphia Eagles defense has surrendered a meager 67.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 3rd-lowest rate in the NFL.

The Philadelphia Eagles defense has surrendered the 9th-fewest passing touchdowns in the NFL: 1.47 per game last year.

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