Dak Prescott TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Dak Prescott

NFL · Player Props

Dak Prescott

QB · Dallas Cowboys

TD Passes

Carolina Panthers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Dak Prescott TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-185/+155).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Dallas Cowboys offensive gameplan to lean 6.4% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer now calling the plays.
Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Dallas Cowboys are forecasted by our trusted projection set to run 65.5 plays on offense in this game: the 7th-highest number on the slate this week.
The Cowboys have run the 7th-most plays in football this year, totaling a staggering 60.8 plays per game.
Dak Prescott's throwing accuracy has gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 65.4% to 70.6%.
Dak Prescott has been one of the top touchdown throwers in the NFL this year, averaging an excellent 1.89 per game while grading out in the 89th percentile.

Favors Under

With a 11.5-point advantage, the Cowboys are heavily favored in this game, indicating much more of a reliance on rushing than their usual game plan.
The leading projections forecast the Dallas Cowboys to be the 7th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 55.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to lean on the pass against the Panthers, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 29.9 per game) this year.

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