Dak Prescott TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Dak Prescott

NFL · Player Props

Dak Prescott

QB · Dallas Cowboys

TD Passes

Dallas Cowboys vs Detroit Lions · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 5:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Dak Prescott TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-133/-103).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +106 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -103.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Dak Prescott has been among the most accurate QBs in football since the start of last season with a terrific 67.3% Completion%, ranking in the 86th percentile.
Dak Prescott has been among the top TD throwers in football since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 2.06 per game while ranking in the 93rd percentile.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 6th-highest clip in football against the Detroit Lions defense this year (73.9%).

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a huge 7-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
The Cowboys rank as the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) this year with a 55.5% pass rate.
The Dallas Cowboys have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Dallas Cowboys have incorporated play action on a mere 23.6% of their passing plays since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.

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