Dak Prescott Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Dak Prescott

NFL · Player Props

Dak Prescott

QB · Dallas Cowboys

Passing Yards

Chicago Bears vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 3, 2025

Updated Sep 22, 2025 12:07 AM EST

Analysis

Dak Prescott Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 265.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 265.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 265.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 132.2 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The Cowboys have called the 2nd-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 61.3 plays per game.
In this contest, Dak Prescott is expected by the projection model to have the 8th-most pass attempts among all QBs with 35.9.
Dak Prescott is positioned as one of the leading QBs in football since the start of last season, averaging an outstanding 251.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 83rd percentile.
Dak Prescott's throwing precision has been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 65.0% to 68.6%.

Favors Under

The Cowboys have played in the 9th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing attack effectiveness when facing windier conditions in this game.
Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Chicago Bears, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 29.8 per game) since the start of last season.
In regards to pass protection (and the effect it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Cowboys ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season.

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