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Curtis Samuel

Curtis Samuel Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 9

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs

 
 
 
Curtis Samuel Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+920/-1350).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1050 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1350.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may fall-off.
  • The Bills offensive line grades out as the 4th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
  • This year, the feeble Chiefs defense has been gouged for a monstrous 75.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 7th-highest rate in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Bills to be the 7th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.8% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • The predictive model expects the Bills to run the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.9 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
  • Opposing QBs teams have been disinclined to test the pass defense of the Chiefs, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in football (just 29.1 per game) this year.
  • While Curtis Samuel has earned 11.1% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a less important option in Buffalo's pass game near the end zone in this game at 6.1%.
  • This year, the stout Chiefs defense has allowed a feeble 0.75 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing wideouts: the 9th-best rate in football.

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