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Curtis Samuel

Curtis Samuel Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 5

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

Curtis Samuel Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+640/-790).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +630 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +640.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bills have run the 10th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 58.8 plays per game.

Calm weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically mean increased passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.

The Buffalo O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all passing game statistics across the board.

The Patriots pass defense has conceded the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (67.9%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (67.9%).

Opposing teams have run for the 3rd-fewest TDs in the league (0.50 per game) against the Patriots defense this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Bills are a heavy favorite in this week's game, suggesting much more of a reliance on running than their standard game plan.

The projections expect the Buffalo Bills as the 5th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 54.6% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The model projects the Bills to run the 4th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.3 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.

Curtis Samuel, who has received 1.1% of his offense's carries near the end zone since the start of last season (85th percentile), is fortunate to be in the unique position (for a wideout) of being involved in the Buffalo Bills red zone rushing attack.

Curtis Samuel grades out in the 19th percentile among WRs when it comes to catching touchdowns since the start of last season, averaging just 0.07 per game.

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