Curtis Samuel Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Curtis Samuel

NFL · Player Props

Curtis Samuel

WR · Washington Commanders

Rushing Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 3, 2022 3:00 AM UTC

Analysis

Curtis Samuel Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-112/-118).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 3rd-quickest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 26.71 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Curtis Samuel to accrue 2.8 rush attempts this week, on average, ranking in the 99th percentile among wide receivers and tight ends.
The Commanders are willing to include receivers in their rushing attack, and Curtis Samuel has received 13.7% of rush attempts this year (99th percentile).
Curtis Samuel has averaged 7.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the highest figures in the league among WRs and TEs (97th percentile).
The Washington Commanders have faced a stacked the box on just 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Commanders are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 7th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 37.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Dallas Cowboys defensive ends project as the 7th-best unit in the league since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.

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